Expected Shots Concept for Football
Project studying a new efficiency metric for football. In football analytics, the offensive performance of teams can be measured using, e.g.., shots at goal and expected goals produced by the shot attempts. Notably, these metrics exclude possessions that could have lead to a shot attempt but the ball was turned over before a shot was taken. In this project, event data are used to estimate the probability of a shot attempt for each possession. This leads to the expected shots concept that measures how successful a team is in generating shot opportunities — including those possessions that did not lead to an actual shot attempt.
Conference presentation co-authored with Ville-Pekka Inkilä and given at the 33rd European Conference on Operational Research.
