Dean Oliver’s Four Factors Revisited

Paper co-authored with Topi Halme.

This paper studies the relationship between basketball teams' four factors and efficiency ratings as defined by Dean Oliver. The paper introduces an equation showing how a team's four factors in conjunction with its field goal and free throw percentages can be used to calculate its offensive rating. Moreover, the substitution of defensive four factors into the equation allows for the calculation of defensive and net ratings. An exact closed-form mapping from four factors to offensive and defensive ratings facilitates the use standard tools of mathematical analysis for gaining insights into how different facets of offense and defense jointly contribute to overall team efficiency. By examining partial derivatives of the offensive rating, the paper quantifies the marginal impact of small changes in the offensive and defensive four factors on offensive, defensive, and net ratings. Most importantly it is observed that the relationship between the four factors and efficiency ratings is non-linear and the individual factors' effect on the ratings depends on the values of the other factors. Sensitivity analysis of the offensive rating is performed in order to better understand the relative importance of the four factors. Additionally, in order to incorporate recent trends in the NBA, the paper contains updated estimates for the relative frequency of possession-ending free throws, which are needed to estimate the number of possessions from box score data. The paper also includes examples from NBA seasons spanning 1996-97 through 2022-23.

The paper has been submitted for publication, but the manuscript can be found on arXiv.org.

Link to the manuscript.