Mathematics, statistics,
and sports are universal.
Expected Threat in Ice Hockey
Project where the expected threat (xT) model used in soccer analytics is applied to ice hockey by including missed shots, rebounding, and power play situations.
Co-authored with Matti Honkanen.
Expected Shots Concept for Football
Project analyzing a new efficiency metric for football, viz. the expected shots (xS). The metric measures how successful a team is in generating shot opportunities.
Co-authored with Ville-Pekka Inkilä.
Substitution Effect on Plus-Minus Statistics in FIBA Competitions
Study describing how shooting fouls influence the plus-minus statistics in FIBA competitions through the so called “substitution effect”.
Co-authored with Topi Halme.
Dean Oliver’s Four Factors Revisited
Paper presenting the relationship between basketball teams’ four factors and efficiency ratings as defined by Dean Oliver.
Co-authored with Topi Halme.
Expected Runs in Finnish Baseball
Project analyzing the expected runs in Finnish baseball (pesäpallo) using a discrete-time Markov chain model
Co-authored with Aku Kettunen.
Extended Model for Expected Threat in Football
Conference presentation proposing an improved expected threat (xT) model that includes turnovers and a more realistic description of game dynamics.
Co-authored with Ville-Pekka Inkilä.
Kalman Filter Algorithm for Rating and Prediction in Basketball
Master’s thesis representing a basketball league using a state-space model. Kalman filter algorithm is used to estimate team strengths and predict future outcomes.
NBA-tuokio
Bi-weekly NBA podcast — in Finnish and in long play format.
Co-hosted with Olli Segersvärd.
Guest lectures
Sports are an exciting and entertaining application for basic and more advanced topics in mathematical and statistical modeling.
Bayesian Networks, Influence Diagrams, and Games in Simulation Metamodeling
Doctoral dissertation presenting two new approaches to simulation metamodeling.
Thesis advisor Kai M. Virtanen.